2023 NFL win totals for NFC South and NFC North Panthers and Falcons on the rise Packers look sneaky

season win totals dropped way back in March (what a time to be alive!) and I went through every single division then, looking at my favorite immediate bets. There's a lot more clarity now after offseason roster moves are largely done, contracts are mostly signed and we know what we're getting ... at least until we don't after the season starts.There's a pick for every single team, plus a look at our SportsLine projection model simulations, but if I actually believe a team is worth betting on I'll include a note., NFC North and NFC South are below.Let's get to it.Over 9.5 (-125)/Under 9.5 (-110)SportsLine Projection Model: 9.1 winsIt is freaking wild for the Detroit Lions to be preseason division favorites in the NFC North and maybe the third (?) best team in the NFC. Then you look at the roster ... and it makes total sense. You could make a galaxy brain argument the Lions have -- if you count the quarterback position -- as good a roster as the . on the Niners and they're the second favorite to win the behind Kansas City. Detroit has a top-five offensive line, Goff is playing great football, Amon-Ra St.-Brown is the biggest superstar your friends don't realize is a superstar, and the Lions rejiggered their running game to feature a very nice combo of veteran and rookie .Say what you want about using first-round picks on a running back (Gibbs) and a linebacker () in terms of analytical value, but both guys are going to be impact players for Detroit in 2023. So will cornerback , who's been flying around during the preseason and might allow Detroit to shift to safety, where he really thrived Matt Martin Kids Jersey for Philadelphia's defense last year. The only reason to fade this Lions team is Detroit's history of being terrible. SportsLine's projection model sees the Lions going under as well, winning 9.1 games in the simulations (and making the playoffs 62% of the time while winning the division 44% of the time). How the Lions bounce back at home against Atlanta and Seattle, regardle s of what happens in Kansas City, might determine which way this one goes.Brinson's pick: Lions over 9.5 wins (-125)Over 8.5 (-125)/Under 8.5 (+105)SportsLine Projection Model: 8.0 winsEasily the strangest Vegas projection in the entire NFL. The Vikings won 13 games last year, left the division, and now Minnesota isn't even the favorite to win the division, not to mention Vegas sees them as a barely .500 team (the juice here implies nine wins is likely, but the 8.5 number is wild).However, there's reason for skepticism: the Vikings went an unprecedented 11-0 in one-score games last year, the first time a team's done that in NFL history. They lost and this offseason, although it's not like Darcy Tucker Jersey the defense was good last year to begin with. Brian Flores coming on board should help if the personnel is enough. also left, but was replaced by first-round rookie , and the early returns are positive. Minnesota was also top-five in terms of health last year based on Adjusted Games Lost, and its point differential was that of an 8.4-win team last year, not a 13-win team. I'm inclined to lean into the metrics here and back the under. Brinson's pick: Vikings under 8.5 wins (+105)Over 7.5 (-140)/Under 7.5 (+120)SportsLine Projection Model: 7.7 winsThe juice is flying up on the Packers win total by , so if you like the under on Green Bay, now would be the time to buy, especially with Bill Belichick and the aggre sive preseason defense looming on the horizon in Week 2. If Love struggles, this number could dip a bit (it could also move up if he looks sharp again).The general consensus just seems to be turning on the new Packers franchise quarterback. Play-calling could be a concern, as detailed on a recent edition of the "Pick Six NFL" podcast, with no Rodgers in the fold. But the young weapons, like and , are tied to Love for the future and have shown some growth. The offensive line is very, very solid, if not stout. And if the defense is league average, this team can absolutely win the division. Green Bay +380 to win the NFC North is a pretty solid stab.Brinson's pick: Packers over 7.5 wins (-140)Over 7.5 (-130)/Under 7.5 (+110)SportsLine Projection Model: 7.1 winsThe hype train rolls on unabated! The Bears made major upgrades this offseason, and those only served to swirl up more interest in Chicago after and scored long touchdowns from in the first two po se sions of Week 1. Fields didn't throw the ball down the field, per se, but there's no doubt this Bears team is BETTER. Just how much better is Ben Smith Kids Jersey the question. They added several off-ball linebackers (key for a Matt Eberflus defense) but should still be questionable on that side of the ball. The offensive line was the biggest i sue, so adding in free agency and in the draft create immediate, ma sive upgrades at two spots. If Fields takes some ma sive step, then the Bears will blow this number out of the water. I'm still inclined to fade the hype here.Brinson's pick: Bears under 7.5 wins (+110)Over 9.5 (-110)/Under 9.5 (-110)SportsLine Projection Model: 8.9 winsAll the questions surrounding the Saints offense vanished into thin air with one preseason drive against the -- looked sharp, looked explosive in the receiving game and was on the field. All those things are fun, but it's still the preseason.The Saints are the most roster and the safest bet in the NFC South. The offensive line remains fully intact, giving the Saints a chance to protect Carr and run the football. keeps piling onto what should ultimately be a Hall of Fame resume. And Carr's never had a good defense before -- the never gave him a TOP TWENTY defense in his career there. The Saints should do that, and it's why they're the favorite to win the division. It makes a ton of sense. I just don't totally trust a team that went 7-10 last year and upgraded the QB position -- in my opinion -- more marginally than substantially.Brinson's pick: Saints under 9.5 wins (-110)Over 7.5 (-115)/Under 7.5 (-105)SportsLine Projection Model: 8.5 winsThe Panthers upgraded the QB position QUITE substantially in 2023, going from a hodgepodge of , and to first-overall pick . The early returns on Young are fantastic; his maturity, his leadership, his footwork, his ability to go through his progre sions -- everything checks out. The early returns on Young's protection ... not so much. The Heisman winner got smoked several times during his first preseason action on le s than 10 snaps. It's been a THING with the Panthers, and if it's not corrected Carolina won't be much of a team this year.I'm inclined to believe it's more about who they played in the preseason and how aggre sive the front was in attacking versus a lack of talent for Carolina. Defensively, the Panthers have the personnel to be top half of the league easily. And the coaching staff upgrade here might be the biggest in the entire NFL, which is saying something considering the situation in Denver. I'm very high on Carolina and like them at nearly 4 Matt Martin Women Jersey -1 to win the division as well. Brinson's pick: Panthers over 7.5 wins (-115)Over 8.5 (-135)/Under 8.5 (+115)SportsLine Projection Model: 8.0 winsArthur Smith appears to be creating "Tenne see Lite" (imagine an old Miller Lite can but with Smith's face and mustache on it) in Atlanta, which is both intriguing and potentially concerning! The Falcons being a run-heavy team with leading the way and just finding "ways to win" while throwing to and is something that interests me from an offensive perspective. They re-upped and this offseason, so the OL has plenty of continuity.Defensively, there were a bunch of veteran upgrades -- , , -- plus a splash signing in Je sie Bates III. If this is a top-half defense (not out of the question) and the offense works the way Smith wants it to, the Falcons are a sneaky team to win a ton of games, owed in large part to the easiest schedule in the NFL.Brinson's pick: Falcons over 8.5 wins (-135)Over 6.5 (+100)/Under 6.5 (-120)SportsLine Projection Model: 6.6 winsEveryone is down on the Bucs and the Bucs know it. And I'd love to swing contrarian here, but it's really difficult to get excited about what Tampa Bay is doing. Todd Bowles punting on fourth-and-short with Tom Freaking Brady in a must-win spot last year still lingers with me. What's he gonna do with Baker Mayfield (who has soundly beat out at this point it appears)? and are fantastic, but going down only highlights how important depth can be. And what if offensive line attrition causes Baker to be under heavy pre sure Nikita Zaitsev Women Jersey ? Why am I asking so many questions? Defensively, there's a lot to like here, but we had trade demand rumblings already this offseason, so it's easy to imagine this train getting off the rails if things start poorly for Tampa.Brinson's pick: Buccaneers under 6.5 wins (-120)
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