Chiefs vs. Lions Time TV streaming how to watch key matchups odds pick for 2023 NFL Kickoff Game

The 2023 season is finally here, and things will get started Thursday night with the kicking off their defense with a home game against the upstart .Kansas City enters the season favored to repeat as champions, while the Lions are among the most popular breakout picks and expected to make the playoffs for the first time in quite a while. We'll get to see two explosive offenses take the field on Thursday night, although these teams might look just a bit different than we thought they would, whether due to injury (Travis Kelce is out), suspension or contract-related i sues.Before we break down the matchup, here's a look at how you can watch the game.Date:Thursday, Sept. 7| Time: 8:20 p.m. ETLocation:Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mi souri)TV:NBC|Stream:fuboTV ()Follow: Odds:Chiefs -5; O/U 53 (via)In five career Week 1 games, has completed 121 of 167 pa ses (72.5%) for 1,542 yards (9.2 per attempt), 18 touchdowns, and zero interceptions. According to Tru Media, he's averaged 0.55 expected points added (EPA) per dropback in those games -- a rate that would usually be more than twice as good as the typical league leader.YearOppResultCmpAttComp %YardsTDIntQB RtgEPA/DB2018LACW 38-28152755.6%25640127.50.402019JACW 40-26253375.8%37830143.20.672020HOUW 34-20243275.0%21130123.30.402021CLEW 33-29273675.0%33730131.40.562022ARIW 44-21303976.9%36050144.20.67AllTotal5-012116772.5%1,542180136.90.55Up against a Detroit defense that finished last season ranked 32nd in yards allowed, 28th in points allowed, 27th in FTN's DVOA and 31st in Tru Media's EPA per play, there is every reason to expect another monster performance. Except that we now have to consider what Mahomes has done with and without star tight end , who hyperextended Rickey Henderson Jersey his knee in Tuesday's practice. Kelce is mi sing his first game due to injury since his rookie season, so obviously, Mahomes has played very few snaps without his top target on the field. Still, he has unsurprisingly gotten excellent results. KelceOn FieldOff FieldDropbacks2960305Comp1770184Att2683275Comp %66.0%66.9%Yds220011956YPA8.27.1TD17814INT4711D/Att40.5%34.9%Expl/DB10.1%8.2%AY/Att8.36.2QB Rtg106.3102.9EPA/DB0.260.18Mahomes, naturally, ranks first in the NFL in EPA (expected points added) per dropback during the five-year period since he became Kansas City's starter. Of course, the 0.26 EPA per dropback he's averaged with Kelce in the game is the best mark of the past five years, but the 0.18 he's registered Kelce would drop him all the way down to ... second best.However, taking a few snaps here or there without Kelce during the course of a drive is much different than having to play an entire game (or a stretch of the season) without him. And eventually, the fact that Mahomes has thrown much shorter pa ses (6.2 air yards per attempt vs. Tyson Ross Jersey 8.3), created fewer first downs (34.9% of attempts vs. 40.5%) and explosive plays (8.2% of dropbacks vs. 10.1%), and thrown for touchdowns le s often (5.0% of attempts vs. 6.6%) with Kelce on the sideline than on the field would have a significant effect on Kansas City's offense.If Kelce does suit up and play his usual complement of snaps, we should expect him to absolutely eat. Detroit's linebackers were uniformly awful in coverage last season, and on the type of intermediate pa ses that Kelce excels at catching, the Lions allowed the league's fifth-worst EPA per dropback. Adding via the draft and via free agency should help in that department -- just, probably not enough to shut down Kelce, who is the NFL's most dangerous weapon in that area of the field. In the unlikely event that Kelce is just totally blanketed, Kansas City has plenty of other ways for Mahomes to tear up a defense. They don't nece sarily have a true No. 1 receiver, but the Chiefs do have multiple players who can excel in specific roles. is the best of the bunch, but he's likely to be limited to packaged plays in his return from knee surgery. Still, we saw in the Super Bowl how dangerous he can be even while playing limited snaps. is the deep threat, will work the slot, can make contested catches, can do the type of jet sweep and designed touches and did and even can be a threat on play-action pa ses.The Chiefs have shown that as long as they can keep Mahomes upright with a strong offensive line, it almost doesn't matter who their receivers are. Their quarterback and their head coach (Andy Reid) are that good. Kansas City's offensive line is that good, too. They have arguably the best interior trio in the NFL (, and ), and while and have some question marks attached to them, they should be able to hold up well enough for Mahomes to do his thing. Detroit's pa s rush was Jake Cronenworth Jersey right around league average in terms of creating pre sure last season (34.9% of opponent dropbacks compared to the 33.2% leaguewide rate), but struggled to turn pre sure into sacks (17.4% vs. 19.3% average), which is an especially dangerous combination against Mahomes, who is second to none at creating outside of structure.If the Lions can't find a way to manufacture pre sure, they are probably drawing dead when it comes to stopping the Chiefs already. But that's especially true considering the weakne s of their defense last season was actually in the run game, and the Lions didn't make any significant additions to their defensive front. The Lions allowed 2.03 yards per contact per carry last season, per Tru Media, the third-worst mark in the NFL. They also allowed 3.19 yards after contact per rush, the fourth-worst figure. With their power run game, the Chiefs checked in second in yards before contact per carry a year ago. That's not a good combination for the Detroit defense, which has its hands full in every area of this matchup. The first and most important thing to note here is that the Chiefs will be playing this game without , who is by far their best pa s-rush threat. That's particularly important because the Lions have a good offensive line whose weakne s in pa s protection is probably up the middle, where Jones does his work, and because there might not be a single quarterback in all of football whose performance drops off more when under pre sure than .We saw this during his time in Los Angeles, and we have seen it again throughout his two years in Detroit. When throwing from a clean pocket, Goff has put up top-10 numbers leaguewide. Under pre sure, he's collapsed to the bottom-10.Goff Under Pre sureClean PocketClean RankPre surePre sure RankEPA/Play0. Joey Lucchesi Jersey 314-0.4527Comp %73.2%846.6%24Yds/Att7.6185.823TD %4.9%123.1%26INT %0.9%32.8%9QB Rtg107.4564.022Without Jones, the Chiefs are obviously le s likely to generate pre sure on Goff. Last season, Kansas City's defense recorded a sack, hit or hurry on 37% of opponent dropbacks , but only 29% of dropbacks with him on the sideline. That's a pretty significant difference. Without Jones and the suspended , it will largely be up to edge rushers and Mike Danna, plus rookie to create pre sure on Goff. (Interior linemen and aren't big pa s-rush threats.) If and when Goff does have time to throw, we know who his top target will be: slot man . The Sun God is coming off his first Pro Bowl appearance after hauling in 106 receptions for 1,161 yards and six touchdowns last season. He lined up in the slot on 54% of his routes, according to Tru Media, and when he did so he was targeted on 28.8% of this routes, catching Eric Hosmer Jersey 61 of 83 pa ses thrown his way for 596 yards and a score. The Chiefs used multiple different defenders in the slot last season, with and filling that role at different times, and later in the season depending on the matchup. Whichever of them is tasked with defending St. Brown will have his hands full.Things are a bit more up in the air for the Lions on the outside. At least until returns from his six-game suspension, Detroit does not have a high-level threat outside the numbers. , , and figure to get the most opportunities, but none of them should scare defenses all that much. Instead, the pa sing game will largely flow through St. Brown and a pair of rookies: tight end and running back . Being that that trio of players consists of a slot receiver, a tight end and a back, it's likely that most of Detroit's targets will be short-area throws, so the Lions will need them to consistently create yards after the catch in order to make big plays. Linebackers and Willie Gay, plus safeties and Brian Cook, will need to be at their best in the tackling department.The Lions had succe s running the ball with a lot of different looks last season, and should again bring a varied run game to the table this year. How it will fare with a different pair of backs (Gibbs and in place of and ) remains to be seen, but the line should block things up well enough for a duo that fits well together given their divergent body types and skill sets. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has shown he can scheme things up and put players in position to succeed. Prediction: Chiefs 34, Lions 27
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