It took me 17 weeks, but thanks to , it finally happened. I climbed my way back to respectability. The proce s went something like this: If you've been following along with my five weekly best bets all season, you'll know that I started the season 1-9 and that my stated goal after Week 2 was to finish the year at or above .500. For the next 14 weeks, I pieced together several 3-2 weeks, a few 2-3 weeks, no more 1-4 or 5-0 weeks, and very rarely, a 4-1 or 5-0 week. Heading into Week 17, I needed to go 3-2 to finish at exactly .500 or 4-1 to finish above .500. Things looked bleak for a while on Sunday with the Bears-Vikings game going over (I had the under), the hanging around with the (I had K.C. at -8.5), and the and both getting blanked for most Craig Biggio Jersey of the second half after combining to score 38 points in the first half (I had the over). The only bet of mine that was secure from the get-go was the -13 as they hammered the from start to finish. But the switch flipped. The Chiefs put the Chargers away in the fourth quarter. The Falcons kicked two field goals to send the game to overtime. And then Winston rewarded my continued faith in him. After the Buccaneers won the coin to s and took the ball to start overtime, I sent out the following tweet. All I want is for the Buccaneers to lose on a historic Jameis pick-six Sean Wagner-McGough (@seanjwagner) Truth be told, I wasn't even thinking about my best bets. You see, Winston was one interception away from becoming the first quarterback in NFL history to throw 30 touchdowns and 30 interceptions in a single season, and that's what I wanted to see happen. Fifteen seconds later, . BALL GAME! Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) THIS IS THE GREATEST MOMENT OF MY LIFE Sean Wagner-McGough (@seanjwagner) Ten minutes later, I realized what it meant for my best bets. I took the Falcons-Bucs Over in my weekly best bets Carlos Lee Jersey column. I started the year 1-9. I said my goal was to finish at or above .500. I havent been above .500 all season. Until that pick-six. You just cant write a script like this. Sean Wagner-McGough (@seanjwagner) I would now like to take this moment to thank Winston and the Buccaneers -- but mostly Winston -- for hitting the over To thank him,, but I'm still not really sure how one is supposed to do that. Winston's demo a few years ago didn't really explain how that was exactly po sible. Jameis Winston with an ... interesting pump up speech. FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) So, instead, I drank some wine, which is close enough in my book and way more enjoyable -- plus, it's the only way I can tolerate with Will Brinson, Ryan Wilson, and John Breech, which, by the way, we recorded every single Sunday night during the season to recap a day's worth of games. Don't worry, even though there are far fewer games this weekend, I'm sure we'll still find a way to stretch every playoff recap episode to the 100-minute mark. Lots of tangents (and wine) will be involved, I'm sure. Anyway, it's now time to focus on the postseason. We're going to shake things up a bit for the playoffs. Instead of submitting five weekly best bets, I'm just going to pick every game against the spread since there are so few games. Onto the picks in a second, but first, allow me one more moment to celebrate my succe sful climb back to respectability. Regular-season best-bets record: 43-41-1 +2.5 at By far, this is my least favorite game to pick. On the one hand, you have Josh Allen trying to keep pace with . On the other hand, you have Bill O'Brien. Neither the Bills nor the Texans excite me in this game, because I can see it going either way. Eventually, I decided to take the Bills and the points -- partly because I think it's going to be a close game George Springer Jersey , but also because of the way Watson played down the stretch and how bad the Texans' defense has been all season. Let's start with Watson. Ever since he dismantled the in Week 13, he has been struggling. In his final three starts of the season, he completed only 60.6 percent of his pa ses, averaged 6.6 yards per attempt, threw two more interceptions (5) than touchdowns (3), and posted a 70.1 pa ser rating. Nobody should expect him to play that poorly against the Bills, but he does have a tough matchup this weekend against -- including fifth against the pa s. I think the Bills can slow him down. Allen isn't nearly as good of a quarterback as Watson, but he doesn't need to be. A suming the Bills' defense plays up to its standards, Allen just need to protect the football and hit on a few big plays. Since his three-interception disaster against the Patriots in Week 4, Allen has thrown three interceptions. He'll be going up against a defense that ranks 26th in DVOA -- including 26th against the pa s. Yes, but given where he's at in his career and how quickly he's been rushed back from a serious injury, I don't think it's unfair to suggest that Watt might not have the type of impact we normally a sociate with him. It feels borderline insane to be taking Allen on the road against Watson at home, but I trust the Bills' defense to turn this into the Ken Giles Jersey kind of low-scoring game the Bills want to be in and I trust the Texans' defense to give up a few big plays to Allen. So, I'll take the Bills and the points. +5 at Patriots It feels like the entire world expects the Titans to upset the Patriots, which probably means the Patriots are going to win by 17 and laugh at all of us for thinking could go into Foxborough and beat a Bill Belichick defense. But I'm still taking the Titans anyway, fully aware that I might look like an idiot -- which, to be fair, I'm more than used to already. The Titans have the better offense, . The Patriots were 11th. Even Belichick knows his offense stinks, evidenced by the way he approached the end of the first half against the on Sunday. With roughly a minute remaining and with the game tied, Belichick chose to run out the clock instead of trying to move into scoring range. The Titans also have the better quarterback. , while still the greatest quarterback of all time, is coming off his worst season as a starter since 2013. Meanwhile, Tannehill has played at a top-five level ever since the Titans made him their starter in Week 7, leading the team to a 7-3 record, ranking first in , pa ser rating, and yards per attempt, and doing something that hasn't happened since Joe Montana did it in 1989. Ryan Tannehill completed better than 70% his pa ses for more than 9 yards per attempt this season.The last time that happened in the NFL was Joe Montana in 1989. Travis Wingfield (@WingfieldNFL) While the Patriots Carlos Beltran Jersey do own the league's top defense, it's a defense that was just exploited by and , who repeatedly beat . If Parker can do it, so can A.J. Brown, who just wrapped up a 1,051-yard, eight-touchdown season as a rookie. DeVante Parker got the best of Stephon Gilmore, who lined up acro s from Parker
